Splitting up is hard to do

The Labour Party are going to lose the general election and will probably be out of office for at least one generation. The word is that they are going to split again. But what into? There are obvious divisions already visible, but the interesting part is imagining how it will look in two years time.
The Scottish Labour party has lost out to the Scots Nats and have their own unique problems so they might just hunker down into their own cosy familiar place. Sort of like a coalmine. English Northern Labour is again a different animal and will react differently. Disparate and looking for allowances one might expect them to switch their allegiance to another more electable party. Southern Labour is just staying at home, denying they ever voted at all as if that will help claw back some of the stealth tax money their votes cost them.
That leaves the Big Beasts and the fascist left wing of the Labour party at large. Mr Brown will probably retain his friendships and the loyalty of a few close allies. Mr Mandelson does not seem to figure in any patterns but we can bet he will not disappear like the morning mist. That leaves Charles Clark et al, homeless, socially useless and jobless.
So that is a three way split even before we start looking at ideological divisions, of which there are many. Labour instinct is for progressive taxation – that means steadily growing the tax take while employing more in the service of the people. Those people will be looking to retain their income base in the face of drastic quango culls so would be too busy to cater for Gordon or Bambi.
There will be at least 50 Labour MPs left in the House of Commons, but we have no way of knowing who they might be or of what section of the party they might belong to, or even if the party is the second largest in parliament. If they get enough seats to be Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition they will have something to do in Westminster. But if, as looks increasingly likely, the Lib Dems take that position Labour can splinter at will without any impact on the man on the Clapham omnibus – who, incidentally, I heard groaning at the sight of a newspaper stand telling us Gordon was in good health the other day.
Well, they do say you can’t make an omelette without breaking any eggs.