I copy and paste this article that I am told was published in the Guardian, 26 Oct 2009, because I cannot click it up now and assume it has been removed from their site. But the assertions here are important for the future of my country so it is important enough for this repeat publishing.

Subject: Ukip threat to David Cameron's election majority

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/oct/25/ukip-cameron-election- threat

Ukip threat to David Cameron's election majority. Tories could lose out in 50 marginals over Lisbon referendum pledge * Gaby Hinsliff, political editor, and Henry McDonald * The Observer, Sunday 25 October 2009

David Cameron could be denied up to 50 MPs at the next election because of the United Kingdom Independence party (Ukip) splitting the Conservative vote, Labour party analysis suggests.

Ukip plans to try to divide the party by standing in marginal seats against Tory candidates who fail to back a referendum on the Lisbon treaty in all circumstances. Cameron refuses to say whether he would offer a referendum if the treaty were ratified, insisting merely that he "will not let the matter rest".

A private analysis by Labour strategists suggests that in marginal constituencies, even a few hundred extra votes for Ukip could frustrate Tory challengers trying to take the seats. One cabinet minister cited Ukip as among the most important factors in the battle for a hung parliament, telling the Observer it could "cost the Tories 50 to 60 seats".

Labour's figures are based on 100 "supermarginal" seats where its Mps are holding on with majorities of less than 2,000. These are the seats Cameron must win to form a majority. While Ukip will not win these seats, the minister said that if the party maintained its momentum and took about two-thirds of its support from Conservative-inclined rather than Labour-inclined voters, it could split the opposition vote sufficiently to keep the Tories out in around 50 seats.

Depending on Gordon Brown's ability to close the poll gap, the Ukip effect may not be enough to keep him in power, but ministers believe it could deliver a coalition or a small Tory majority.

The fringe party is struggling financially after a court ruling that it must return a donation ruled inadmissible by the Electoral Commission, threatening its ability to fight a general election. However, it has survived similar crises before to increase its share of
the vote in this year's European elections.

The right-wing thinktank the Bruges Group, which calculates that Ukip cost the Tories about 27 seats at the last election, said it had the potential to create more serious problems this time. Robin Oulds, director of the group, said the large Conservative poll lead disguised the fact that much of its support was still in south-east England, while Ukip's was far smaller but more evenly spread.

Nigel Farage, Ukip's leading spokesman, said he was drawing up plans to focus on key marginals. He said he was "looking to" the possibility of Tory candidates breaking ranks and endorsing a referendum in all circumstances.

John Curtice, professor of government at Strathclyde University, said Ukip could pose problems for the Tories on "party indiscipline", with candidates tempted to defy their leader over Lisbon. The threat from Ukip helps to explain why Cameron has hardened the party line on Europe, despite the concerns of some senior Tories about their allies in the European parliament. William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, insisted yesterday that Ukip would not be allowed to bounce his party.

He said: "We won't be deciding on this policy [Europe] based on the activities of what is a fringe party. We'll decide on what is best for the country and what we really believe in. The real choice is between the failed government of Gordon Brown and a new government under David Cameron."